what’s occurring: oil lows

crude is still bumbling around. word echoing production is high, with supplies previously excellent. three acquaintences in the industry laid off.

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SMA ballet

some petrol and natural gas options, near term and leaps to 2019 for USO, XOP, OIL, UNG. As well some small underlying long with covered calls and protection with plans to hold for years. maybe energy demands are changing, shifting from hydrocarbons… maybe oil goes back up when the top is ready for it.

ASIDE from oil, sold some short c-spreads on BAC for the second little bump since drumpf claims to be responsible for market lift. A few days later and now ready to close those at .01 since earnings came out. GS is telling of danger, but if overall keeps up and up, good.

Some inauguration plays preparing for the event of a serious schooling when drumpf university effect goes from NY greedy fools to the innocent masses.

speaking of school, now back in session for spring 2017.

BIG PICTURE… fed rate is still under 1% as it has rested for the past seven years. from 2009 to 2014 the rate was UNCH near zero. recently a slight increase of approx 0.25 for the past two Decembers of ’15 and ’16.

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I drink your milkshake!

Oil this morning looked a bit shallow so I jumped in! Then jumped out after seeing over $500 profit.

Also picked up some more NLY after I noticed a dip

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The Euro

I never paid much attention to the euro, and now having thoughts of trading it after spending a summer working in Europe. It makes travelling easier, not having to convert currency between euro countries. While looking at all the never-ending turmoil in Europe, I am beginning to wonder about the longevity of the euro.

I want to know the history of the euro, what was the incentive for all these countries to join? They must have been coerced and were too lazy to fight it. If I was a economic leader of a country, I wouldn’t even field the idea. The UK and Switzerland were wise to stay away. The problems shouldn’t even need to be explained… And I can’t imagine any logical reason to join the eurozone.

Why, as a fiscally responsible nation, would you trust any other nation to maintain responsible monetary behavior? Even if you could trust them, markets are unpredictable and shockwaves are already easily enough spread around the world. This system only leads to the irresponsible leaders getting lax about business and deceptive about their accounting. They are sat in a comfort zone and soon expecting the others to carry them in times of trouble. And then once those lazy countries are dependent on the support, they won’t want to leave like children boomeranging back to their parents’ house after deciding life was too tough off the nipple.

The incentive to succeed is erased as well as the fear of failure. Where is the energy in this system? The euro may be the most un-money idea ever to have ever been brought to money.

I’d like to be wrong about this, maybe I am missing something. Either way, am going to switch this currency into greenbacks as soon as my feet touch sweet American soil.


back in the game

I’ve been in my own little world working since February and finally re-focusing on trading. Heading back to the states after a busy summer cruising around the mediterranean. Halfway across the Atlantic, heading to Fort Lauderdale, Florida. I’m using the internet in the middle of an ocean… sweet. Thought I’d jot down some things of interest and remarkable changes I’ve caught up on since I’ve been busy with work for the past eight months.

SP finally got over 1300 range and now sitting mid 1400’s.

AAPL was over 700 in September, and now sitting at Google levels. There must be some talk of a bubble.

Riots haven’t stopped

Spain is now in the spotlight as well as France for austerity measures, following Greece and the rest of the Euro countries.

Elections coming up in the next month.

Oil is under 100 again.

Now what? The theory of trading the rally to elections has certainly paid off. Now I’m wondering – how long will it last? I am buying some calls and puts now as SP 1400 is starting to stagnate. Things could easily go either way, but S&P 1400 is still low in my opinion. $1400 for an index is almost insignificant, yet 900 is still fresh in my mind.

I’m prepared for a distribution phase to begin, or a correction.

Same as usual… playing for long term slow boring growth and always ready for a correction to seize opportunity.

Finally, some random questions, from cabin-fever inspired debates with colleagues.

Lion versus Grizzly Bear, who wins?
Does the Earth spin at the same speed in the Bahamas as in Canada?
Crunchy Peanut Butter or Smooth?


TNA 54 call first weekly option trade – update

Sold this last week, now Im thinking it would be nice if I was able to trade 100’s of options at a time, maybe thousands? Always covering, spreading, re-writing, and waiting for their eventual decline to nothing. TNA down to 52.7 after launching this morning. I’m also short a 44 feb put so I’m hoping it doesn’t go lower than 44 or over 56


Writing again

TNA has weeklys meow! I mean now. Sorry just saw Super Troopers. Sold a 54 weekly next Friday for 1.05. Today I covered a 53 call(sold at .75) for .15

So here i am for next week

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Closed TNA covered call at 50% profit

Covered that TNA jan 50 call at .95 this morning for about $100 profit. Was tempting to cover yesterday at the gap fill dip. Glad I waited it out.

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Here is a chart of the option rapidly declining. I could have waited it out but I don’t want to wait 15 days for remaining $100 at expiration when I cleared $100 in 3 days.

Now waiting for movement or if flat I look to february to sell another call